Dow ......8,000.86 ....-148.15 (-1.82%)
S&P 500 ...825.88 ....-19.26 (-2.28%)
Nasdaq ......1,476.42 ...-31.42 (-2.08%)
Economy: Sharpest decline in 26 years
Stocks stumble as investors fear worsening economy
Oil halts decline with GDP not as bad as feared
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Dow ......8,149.01 ....-226.44 (-2.70%)
S&P 500 ..845.14 ....-28.95 (-3.31%)
Nasdaq ....1,507.84 ...-50.50 (-3.24%)
Stocks fall as unemployment claims reach new high -
Airline losses for fourth quarter mount
December new home sales hit lowest point since 1963
Stocks stumble as investors fear worsening economy
S&P 500 ..845.14 ....-28.95 (-3.31%)
Nasdaq ....1,507.84 ...-50.50 (-3.24%)
Stocks fall as unemployment claims reach new high -
Airline losses for fourth quarter mount
December new home sales hit lowest point since 1963
Stocks stumble as investors fear worsening economy
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Dow .......8,375.45 .....+200.72 (2.46%)
S&P 500 ....874.09 ....+28.38 (3.36%)
Nasdaq .....1,558.34 ....+53.44 (3.55%)
Stocks jump on reports of plan for bad bank assets
"The financials are just begging for good news here," he said.
"We aren't really going to see any great economic news anytime soon so if there is any positive movement in Washington toward the problem, that would stabilize the decline," he said.
Fed leaves rates near zero
Producer Spending Cuts May Shape Future Oil Price Rebound
Street Soars On Hopeful Financials
Recession Slows Medical Inflation, Helping Insurers
Fed moves to help distressed homeowners
Roubini & Soros on Bad Bank
S&P 500 ....874.09 ....+28.38 (3.36%)
Nasdaq .....1,558.34 ....+53.44 (3.55%)
Stocks jump on reports of plan for bad bank assets
"The financials are just begging for good news here," he said.
"We aren't really going to see any great economic news anytime soon so if there is any positive movement in Washington toward the problem, that would stabilize the decline," he said.
Fed leaves rates near zero
Producer Spending Cuts May Shape Future Oil Price Rebound
Street Soars On Hopeful Financials
Recession Slows Medical Inflation, Helping Insurers
Fed moves to help distressed homeowners
Roubini & Soros on Bad Bank
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Dow ....8,174.73 ...+58.70 (0.72%)
S&P 500 ....845.70 .....+9.13 (1.09%)
Nasdaq ......1,504.90 ...+15.44 (1.04%)
US Stocks Gain on Earnings; Texas Instruments, Travelers Rise
Fed expected to keep rates at record lows
Oil prices tumble on jobs, housing consumer data
Hint of growth in demand for raw materials
Analysts said the rally in shipping costs could be an early sign that global trade was beginning to revive from the paralysis that took hold late last year, which led to many ships lying empty.
The bulk of demand has come from Chinese steel mills and iron ore traders.
“Steel and iron ore prices seem to have stabilised a little, especially in China,” said Mr Norfolk.
“We’ve been through a period of significant destocking and the Chinese steel mills have been encouraged by the fact that prices seem to have hit a floor, so they’re finally coming back in to buy up some raw materials.”
S&P 500 ....845.70 .....+9.13 (1.09%)
Nasdaq ......1,504.90 ...+15.44 (1.04%)
US Stocks Gain on Earnings; Texas Instruments, Travelers Rise
Fed expected to keep rates at record lows
Oil prices tumble on jobs, housing consumer data
Hint of growth in demand for raw materials
Analysts said the rally in shipping costs could be an early sign that global trade was beginning to revive from the paralysis that took hold late last year, which led to many ships lying empty.
The bulk of demand has come from Chinese steel mills and iron ore traders.
“Steel and iron ore prices seem to have stabilised a little, especially in China,” said Mr Norfolk.
“We’ve been through a period of significant destocking and the Chinese steel mills have been encouraged by the fact that prices seem to have hit a floor, so they’re finally coming back in to buy up some raw materials.”
Monday, January 26, 2009
Best 25 Financial Blogs
Source: http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1873144,00.html
By Douglas A. McIntyre and Ashley C. Allen
1. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (7,903 links). Although Mish (aka Mike Shedlock) is not an economist by training, he adroitly gets into the thick of economic data. Mish uses observations made by those in major media, so-called experts and government officials and serves up analysis based on his impression of their relevance and validity. The author is not afraid to attack conventional wisdom.
2. Footnoted.org (598 links). The blog's author, Michelle Leder, digs through SEC filings and comes up with some of the best insights about the "hidden" comments found in 8Ks, 10Qs, and other government filings that rarely get as careful a review. This is one of the oldest financial blogs, founded in 2003.
3. Bill Cara's Cara Community (389 links) analyzes the capital markets, stock movements, and the economy with an eye to technical guides including volatility, cash flows, trading volume, and price performance and is prolific almost beyond comparison.
4. Infectious Greed (3,822 links) Blogger, Paul Kedrosky, is considered one the preeminent financial market pundits. His site reflects the perspective of a former technology analyst, institutional money manager, and venture capitalist. Infectious greed provides a running commentary on global markets, economic trends, and emerging business trends.
5. Bespoke Invest, also known as "Think Big" (6,112 links), is the blog for a money management and research firm. The site provides a combination of technical analysis and commentary on macroeconomic trends, major sectors of the stock market, and currencies.
6. Angry Bear (2,447 links) is the product of a half dozen Ph.D economists, an historian, and financial professionals. The writers provide individual perspectives on broad sectors of the economy based on their unique training. They look at topics as varied as worldwide trade and industrial production and US government programs and regulations like Social Security.
7.The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz (11,223 links) has recently moved to http://www.ritholtz.com. Ritholtz is one of the most well-respected market and economic pundits and bloggers who manages money as his day job. Multiple posts a day on subjects as diverse as criticisms of the business press, digital media, and key economic indicators. An excellent job of using relevant and interesting charts, tables, and graphs.
8. Naked Shorts (833 links) covers ETFs, hedge funds, monetary policy, and current events. Bangs on hedgies and the accounting profession and its practices. Not fond of the practices of many US government agencies.
11. Clusterstock (1,613) links) follows and comments on business, the stock market, and economic news throughout the day. It has a staff of several outstanding writers lead by Henry Blodget. Articles by John Carney are particularly good. It is now combined with another strong site called Silicon Alley Insider.
14. Calculated Risk (11,057 links) is among the most thoughtful and thorough financial commentary on the internet. Period. Tears apart poor economic assumptions. Gets to the heart of the elements that move the economy and markets. Big focus on housing and economic analysis.
15. Abnormal Returns (1,009 links). Disregarding our own rules for what blogs should be on this list, this site is the only one that simply provides lists of links to other financial sites. However, there's a reason we're making an exception as these are carefully selected and come with good short intros. Links are regularly organized by subject.
16. Trader Feed (2,437 links). The author, Brett Steenbarger, is one of the most intelligent voices in the financial blog business. Strong on technical analysis, broad market commentary, and the psychology behind trading behavior.
17. Alpha Trends (1,046 links). Extremely strong technical analysis. Good video commentary which it claims is the highest subscription membership for financial videos on YouTube. Covers stocks, ETF, and index movement.
19. Peridot Capitalist (192 links). Written by a money manager, one of the oldest and better regarded financial blogs. Good corporate earnings analysis and looks at undervalued stocks.
21. Maoxian (290 links). Strong pieces on day trading, technical trading, balance sheets, and ETFs. Strange graphics. Writer tries to be anonymous, but it hasn't worked.
22. 10Q Detective (277 links). Writer has been an equity analyst. Good at digging through government filings to find information for investors which is both helpful and sometimes amusing. Good place to read how public companies "game" the process of SEC reporting.
23. Ticker Sense (538 links). This site may be the most well known for its weekly poll of financial blogger sentiments about the market. Written by money management firm Birinyi Associates. Has excellent analysis of global economy and major sectors of the stock market. Use of tables and graphs is among the best.
24. Upside Trader (356 links) Good technical analysis which follows the market carefully. Strong charting on individual companies. Great place for day traders.
25. Carl Futia (133 links). One of the best financial forecasting blogs. Employs various technical analysis including some he has developed. Notable for his thoughtful and approachable writing. Posts very regularly.
By Douglas A. McIntyre and Ashley C. Allen
1. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (7,903 links). Although Mish (aka Mike Shedlock) is not an economist by training, he adroitly gets into the thick of economic data. Mish uses observations made by those in major media, so-called experts and government officials and serves up analysis based on his impression of their relevance and validity. The author is not afraid to attack conventional wisdom.
2. Footnoted.org (598 links). The blog's author, Michelle Leder, digs through SEC filings and comes up with some of the best insights about the "hidden" comments found in 8Ks, 10Qs, and other government filings that rarely get as careful a review. This is one of the oldest financial blogs, founded in 2003.
3. Bill Cara's Cara Community (389 links) analyzes the capital markets, stock movements, and the economy with an eye to technical guides including volatility, cash flows, trading volume, and price performance and is prolific almost beyond comparison.
4. Infectious Greed (3,822 links) Blogger, Paul Kedrosky, is considered one the preeminent financial market pundits. His site reflects the perspective of a former technology analyst, institutional money manager, and venture capitalist. Infectious greed provides a running commentary on global markets, economic trends, and emerging business trends.
5. Bespoke Invest, also known as "Think Big" (6,112 links), is the blog for a money management and research firm. The site provides a combination of technical analysis and commentary on macroeconomic trends, major sectors of the stock market, and currencies.
6. Angry Bear (2,447 links) is the product of a half dozen Ph.D economists, an historian, and financial professionals. The writers provide individual perspectives on broad sectors of the economy based on their unique training. They look at topics as varied as worldwide trade and industrial production and US government programs and regulations like Social Security.
7.The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz (11,223 links) has recently moved to http://www.ritholtz.com. Ritholtz is one of the most well-respected market and economic pundits and bloggers who manages money as his day job. Multiple posts a day on subjects as diverse as criticisms of the business press, digital media, and key economic indicators. An excellent job of using relevant and interesting charts, tables, and graphs.
8. Naked Shorts (833 links) covers ETFs, hedge funds, monetary policy, and current events. Bangs on hedgies and the accounting profession and its practices. Not fond of the practices of many US government agencies.
11. Clusterstock (1,613) links) follows and comments on business, the stock market, and economic news throughout the day. It has a staff of several outstanding writers lead by Henry Blodget. Articles by John Carney are particularly good. It is now combined with another strong site called Silicon Alley Insider.
14. Calculated Risk (11,057 links) is among the most thoughtful and thorough financial commentary on the internet. Period. Tears apart poor economic assumptions. Gets to the heart of the elements that move the economy and markets. Big focus on housing and economic analysis.
15. Abnormal Returns (1,009 links). Disregarding our own rules for what blogs should be on this list, this site is the only one that simply provides lists of links to other financial sites. However, there's a reason we're making an exception as these are carefully selected and come with good short intros. Links are regularly organized by subject.
16. Trader Feed (2,437 links). The author, Brett Steenbarger, is one of the most intelligent voices in the financial blog business. Strong on technical analysis, broad market commentary, and the psychology behind trading behavior.
17. Alpha Trends (1,046 links). Extremely strong technical analysis. Good video commentary which it claims is the highest subscription membership for financial videos on YouTube. Covers stocks, ETF, and index movement.
19. Peridot Capitalist (192 links). Written by a money manager, one of the oldest and better regarded financial blogs. Good corporate earnings analysis and looks at undervalued stocks.
21. Maoxian (290 links). Strong pieces on day trading, technical trading, balance sheets, and ETFs. Strange graphics. Writer tries to be anonymous, but it hasn't worked.
22. 10Q Detective (277 links). Writer has been an equity analyst. Good at digging through government filings to find information for investors which is both helpful and sometimes amusing. Good place to read how public companies "game" the process of SEC reporting.
23. Ticker Sense (538 links). This site may be the most well known for its weekly poll of financial blogger sentiments about the market. Written by money management firm Birinyi Associates. Has excellent analysis of global economy and major sectors of the stock market. Use of tables and graphs is among the best.
24. Upside Trader (356 links) Good technical analysis which follows the market carefully. Strong charting on individual companies. Great place for day traders.
25. Carl Futia (133 links). One of the best financial forecasting blogs. Employs various technical analysis including some he has developed. Notable for his thoughtful and approachable writing. Posts very regularly.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Dow ....8,077.56 ...-45.24 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 ...831.95 ...+4.45 (0.54%)
Nasdaq .....1,477.29 ...+11.80 (0.81%)
Oil prices jump in volatile market
--------------
S&P 500 ...831.95 ...+4.45 (0.54%)
Nasdaq .....1,477.29 ...+11.80 (0.81%)
Oil prices jump in volatile market
--------------
Commercial Real Estate Loans --- from DOW JONES Newswires
By A.D. Pruitt Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--While still a relatively small amount, delinquencies on commercial real estate loans are creeping higher on the balance sheets of U.S. banks.
The scope of the delinquencies in commercial property amid a deepening recession hasn't caught up with residential real estate, yet. And, banking analysts note that many banks classify loans to home builders as commercial real estate loans, skewing the delinquency numbers higher in this category.
That said, more mortgage loans for brick-and-mortar commercial properties such as office buildings, malls and hotels are becoming more distressed amid a continuing credit crunch. This poses a full-fledged dilemma for banks, while exacerbating financing constraints for the commercial real estate industry.
Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he is seeing rising delinquencies for commercial construction loans, normally provided to home builders, and for commercial real estate mortgages. But "commercial mortgage defaults are rising rapidly because of the weakness in the U.S. economy," and the problems in commercial property related to rising vacancy rates in strip malls, office buildings and hotels, he said.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) currently holds $64.7 billion in commercial real estate loans, of which the bank said it considers $3.9 billion, or 6%, nonperforming. However, the bank said during its earnings report for the fourth quarter that 72% of its nonperforming commercial real estate loans are from home builders falling behind on payments amid a depressed residential market.
As such, about 1.5% of its non-home builder commercial real estate loans are in or near foreclosure. That compares with about 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007,when the bank didn't specifically separate home builder loans, which account for many of the losses.
Meanwhile, delinquent commercial real estate loan ratios - 90 days or more past due - for U.S. Bancorp (USB)rose to 3.34% during the fourth quarter from 1% in the year-earlier period, the bank said in its fourth-quarter statement.
"We believe commercial real estate loan...defaults from the end of the third quarter should increase...in the next 12 months four- to five[fold]," excluding construction loans, Cassidy said. He noted that regional banks including Zions Bancorp (ZION) and Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) are more vulnerable given their high exposure to commercial real estate loans.
Mounting concerns about bank exposure to such loans come as financing resources for commercial property are drying up, especially from the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. This sector had provided a significant source of financing for acquisitions and refinancing transactions in commercial property.
After the housing market crumbled more than a year ago, many industry experts predicted that commercial real estate would bend but not break like its residential counterpart. Indeed, these experts said it was unlikely that the market would experience the hardship endured in the early 1990s, when oversupply and an unfavorable tax policy created one of the worst industry crises in history.
But with the credit markets in lockdown mode, consumer confidence battered and the U.S. in a painful recession, industry watchers expect a commercial correction as severe or worse than that in the early 1990s.
Omotayo Okusanya, an analyst at UBS, said UBS is projecting that $400 billion in commercial real estate loans will come due this year with a refinancing shortfall of between $125 billion and $150 billion. "Some of these loans will end up in default, causing default rates to rise up the wazoo," Okusanya said.
He noted there are $3.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans outstanding and banks have about 40% of these loans on their balance sheets, while 26% are securitized in CMBS debt.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--While still a relatively small amount, delinquencies on commercial real estate loans are creeping higher on the balance sheets of U.S. banks.
The scope of the delinquencies in commercial property amid a deepening recession hasn't caught up with residential real estate, yet. And, banking analysts note that many banks classify loans to home builders as commercial real estate loans, skewing the delinquency numbers higher in this category.
That said, more mortgage loans for brick-and-mortar commercial properties such as office buildings, malls and hotels are becoming more distressed amid a continuing credit crunch. This poses a full-fledged dilemma for banks, while exacerbating financing constraints for the commercial real estate industry.
Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he is seeing rising delinquencies for commercial construction loans, normally provided to home builders, and for commercial real estate mortgages. But "commercial mortgage defaults are rising rapidly because of the weakness in the U.S. economy," and the problems in commercial property related to rising vacancy rates in strip malls, office buildings and hotels, he said.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) currently holds $64.7 billion in commercial real estate loans, of which the bank said it considers $3.9 billion, or 6%, nonperforming. However, the bank said during its earnings report for the fourth quarter that 72% of its nonperforming commercial real estate loans are from home builders falling behind on payments amid a depressed residential market.
As such, about 1.5% of its non-home builder commercial real estate loans are in or near foreclosure. That compares with about 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007,when the bank didn't specifically separate home builder loans, which account for many of the losses.
Meanwhile, delinquent commercial real estate loan ratios - 90 days or more past due - for U.S. Bancorp (USB)rose to 3.34% during the fourth quarter from 1% in the year-earlier period, the bank said in its fourth-quarter statement.
"We believe commercial real estate loan...defaults from the end of the third quarter should increase...in the next 12 months four- to five[fold]," excluding construction loans, Cassidy said. He noted that regional banks including Zions Bancorp (ZION) and Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) are more vulnerable given their high exposure to commercial real estate loans.
Mounting concerns about bank exposure to such loans come as financing resources for commercial property are drying up, especially from the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. This sector had provided a significant source of financing for acquisitions and refinancing transactions in commercial property.
After the housing market crumbled more than a year ago, many industry experts predicted that commercial real estate would bend but not break like its residential counterpart. Indeed, these experts said it was unlikely that the market would experience the hardship endured in the early 1990s, when oversupply and an unfavorable tax policy created one of the worst industry crises in history.
But with the credit markets in lockdown mode, consumer confidence battered and the U.S. in a painful recession, industry watchers expect a commercial correction as severe or worse than that in the early 1990s.
Omotayo Okusanya, an analyst at UBS, said UBS is projecting that $400 billion in commercial real estate loans will come due this year with a refinancing shortfall of between $125 billion and $150 billion. "Some of these loans will end up in default, causing default rates to rise up the wazoo," Okusanya said.
He noted there are $3.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans outstanding and banks have about 40% of these loans on their balance sheets, while 26% are securitized in CMBS debt.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Dow ....8,122.80 ...-105.30 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 ....827.50 ....-12.74 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq ...1,465.49 ....-41.58 (-2.76%)
Oil rises as US stimulus hopes outweigh weak demand
Southwest Airlines Enters 'No-Growth' Era
Stocks pare losses from Microsoft, bank woes
Layoffs spike, housing tumbles; outlook worsens
S&P 500 ....827.50 ....-12.74 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq ...1,465.49 ....-41.58 (-2.76%)
Oil rises as US stimulus hopes outweigh weak demand
Southwest Airlines Enters 'No-Growth' Era
Stocks pare losses from Microsoft, bank woes
Layoffs spike, housing tumbles; outlook worsens
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Dow ...8,228.10 ....+279.01 (3.51%)
S&P 500 ....840.25 ....+35.03 (4.35%)
Nasdaq ......1,507.07 ...+66.21 (4.60%)
Tech, financial stocks lead Wall Street higher
Bank of America Soars as Lewis, Five Directors Buy More Shares
IBM's Strong Services, Software Results Lift Hopes For Peers
Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Retreats, Spurring Commodity Buying
S&P 500 ....840.25 ....+35.03 (4.35%)
Nasdaq ......1,507.07 ...+66.21 (4.60%)
Tech, financial stocks lead Wall Street higher
Bank of America Soars as Lewis, Five Directors Buy More Shares
IBM's Strong Services, Software Results Lift Hopes For Peers
Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Retreats, Spurring Commodity Buying
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
TODAY IS Inauguration DAY: Barack Obama Sworn in As 44th President
Dow ....7,949.09 ....-332.13 (-4.01%)
S&P 500 ...805.22 ...-44.90 (-5.28%)
Nasdaq .....1,440.86 ...-88.47 (-5.78%)
Stocks tumble on fresh worries about banks
Oil Rises as Traders Purchase Crude Before Contract Expiration
Oil markets suggest broad pessimism over demand
State of mining is bad, but it could get worse
Tens of thousands of mining jobs cut; more signs that worse is yet to come
"Expect inventories to get bigger and expect this continuing process (of cutbacks)," said Andrew Martyn, a portfolio manager who specializes in mining for Toronto-based Davis-Rea Ltd. "It's going to go for quite some time here."
"A lot of the communities are remote so that when (mines) do shut down, the town actually collapses," Martyn said.
Coal companies have slowed production from Wyoming to Australia.
Coal jobs are among the highest paying in many rural U.S. communities, potentially creating a dire economic ripple effect. In the past, coal companies have been more recession proof, but the average price per ton for Appalachian coal has fallen more than 35 percent since the summer.
"Companies still looking to cut costs are going to be cutting out high cost operations. A lot of that should be still to come," Barnard Jacobs Mellet analyst Patrick Chidley said.
Dow ....7,949.09 ....-332.13 (-4.01%)
S&P 500 ...805.22 ...-44.90 (-5.28%)
Nasdaq .....1,440.86 ...-88.47 (-5.78%)
Stocks tumble on fresh worries about banks
Oil Rises as Traders Purchase Crude Before Contract Expiration
Oil markets suggest broad pessimism over demand
State of mining is bad, but it could get worse
Tens of thousands of mining jobs cut; more signs that worse is yet to come
"Expect inventories to get bigger and expect this continuing process (of cutbacks)," said Andrew Martyn, a portfolio manager who specializes in mining for Toronto-based Davis-Rea Ltd. "It's going to go for quite some time here."
"A lot of the communities are remote so that when (mines) do shut down, the town actually collapses," Martyn said.
Coal companies have slowed production from Wyoming to Australia.
Coal jobs are among the highest paying in many rural U.S. communities, potentially creating a dire economic ripple effect. In the past, coal companies have been more recession proof, but the average price per ton for Appalachian coal has fallen more than 35 percent since the summer.
"Companies still looking to cut costs are going to be cutting out high cost operations. A lot of that should be still to come," Barnard Jacobs Mellet analyst Patrick Chidley said.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Jan. 16, 2009
Dow .....8,281.22 ........+68.73 (0.84%)
S&P 500 ....850.12 ......+6.38 (0.76%)
Nasdaq ......1,529.33 ....+17.49 (1.16%)
Disabled, Blind People to Lose California Disability Payments
California's fiscal future lurched yet another step toward oblivion on Friday as state Controller John Chiang announced he could no longer make payments for services to disabled and blind people who need the money to pay for rent and food.Chiang said payments would most likely have to be stopped by Feb. 1."Delaying these payments will hurt real families," Chiang said.About one million people would be affected by the non-payments, Chiang said.
"People are going to be hungry at my house," said Shirley Magers, who receives a $900 monthly payment related to her disabilities.
Thousands of construction projects around the state are shutting down because state bond money has dried up.
Dow .....8,281.22 ........+68.73 (0.84%)
S&P 500 ....850.12 ......+6.38 (0.76%)
Nasdaq ......1,529.33 ....+17.49 (1.16%)
Disabled, Blind People to Lose California Disability Payments
California's fiscal future lurched yet another step toward oblivion on Friday as state Controller John Chiang announced he could no longer make payments for services to disabled and blind people who need the money to pay for rent and food.Chiang said payments would most likely have to be stopped by Feb. 1."Delaying these payments will hurt real families," Chiang said.About one million people would be affected by the non-payments, Chiang said.
"People are going to be hungry at my house," said Shirley Magers, who receives a $900 monthly payment related to her disabilities.
Thousands of construction projects around the state are shutting down because state bond money has dried up.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Dow .....8,212.49 .......+12.35 (0.15%)
S&P 500 ....843.74 ....+1.12 (0.13%)
Nasdaq ......1,511.84 ....+22.20 (1.49%)
Technically it near rebound tomorrow.
Apple Succession Plan: Nobody's Business?
Jobs takes a medical leave and therefore PALM and RIMM get boost.
House Democrats propose $825 billion stimulus bill
Stocks regain ground as hopes grow for bailout
S&P 500 ....843.74 ....+1.12 (0.13%)
Nasdaq ......1,511.84 ....+22.20 (1.49%)
Technically it near rebound tomorrow.
Apple Succession Plan: Nobody's Business?
Jobs takes a medical leave and therefore PALM and RIMM get boost.
House Democrats propose $825 billion stimulus bill
Stocks regain ground as hopes grow for bailout
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Dow..... 8,200.14 ....-248.42 (-2.94%)
S&P 500 ......842.62 .....-29.17 (-3.35%)
Nasdaq ........1,489.64 ...-56.82 (-3.67%)
- Big selloff on Wall Street
- Crude Oil Falls After US Supplies Increase to 16-Month High
- Oil slips below $38 after US retail sales data
- For the year, Deutsche Bank posted a loss of about 3.9 billion euros.
- US Business Inventories Decline for Third Month
- US data also show large decline in industrial supplies
- Stocks tumble as worries grow about banks
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Dow ...8,448.56 .........-25.41 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 ...871.79 ............+1.53 (0.18%)
Nasdaq .....1,546.46 ........+7.67 (0.50%)
BOND REPORT: Treasurys Down After Bernanke Says Fed May Buy US Debt
Crude Oil Rises as Saudi Arabia Says It Will Make Deeper Cuts
Oil finishes higher on Bernanke comments
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the stimulus package could provide a "significant boost" to the sinking U.S. economy.
Traders interpreted Bernanke as saying the economy is showing signs of stabilizing.
The short-term energy outlook released Tuesday by the Department of Energy said falling demand will likely continue through the year. "U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2 percent in 2009, leading to decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels," the department's Energy Information Administration said.
"The last thing this economy needs right now is a fresh doubling of oil prices. OPEC does not feel it can let prices get any lower, though."
Sony and Toshiba Shares Fall Sharply
S&P 500 ...871.79 ............+1.53 (0.18%)
Nasdaq .....1,546.46 ........+7.67 (0.50%)
BOND REPORT: Treasurys Down After Bernanke Says Fed May Buy US Debt
Crude Oil Rises as Saudi Arabia Says It Will Make Deeper Cuts
Oil finishes higher on Bernanke comments
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the stimulus package could provide a "significant boost" to the sinking U.S. economy.
Traders interpreted Bernanke as saying the economy is showing signs of stabilizing.
The short-term energy outlook released Tuesday by the Department of Energy said falling demand will likely continue through the year. "U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2 percent in 2009, leading to decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels," the department's Energy Information Administration said.
"The last thing this economy needs right now is a fresh doubling of oil prices. OPEC does not feel it can let prices get any lower, though."
Sony and Toshiba Shares Fall Sharply
Monday, January 12, 2009
THE COOL PICTURE: COPY FROM HERE
"By the time the United States leaves Iraq, the estimated total cost of war will be more than $3 trillion."
Dow .......8,474.05 ....-125.13 (-1.46%)
S&P 500 ...870.26 .....-20.09 (-2.26%)
Nasdaq .....1,538.79 ....-32.80 (-2.09%)
MARKET SNAPSHOT: U.S. Stocks Fall To Lows Of 2009; Dow Off 150 plus Points
GM exec says automaker may need more gov't money -
Stocks tumble as oil falls on economic worries
Crude Oil Tumbles Below $38 as Demand Drops Faster Than Supply
Although OPEC had slashed the production by 2.2 million barrels a day on Dec. 22 news, the oil price rebounded to $50 from below $40 since then.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Thursday, January 08, 2009
THE MARKET MIGHT PUT THE HOPE ON OBAMA'S STIMULUS PLAN.
Dow ...........8,742.46 .........-27.24 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 ....909.73 ...........+3.08 (0.34%)
Nasdaq ......1,617.01 ..........+17.95 (1.12%)
Obama's green energy plans build hopes, skepticism
Obama asked Congress "to act without delay" to pass legislation that included doubling alternative energy production in the next three years and building a new electricity "smart grid."
Dow ...........8,742.46 .........-27.24 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 ....909.73 ...........+3.08 (0.34%)
Nasdaq ......1,617.01 ..........+17.95 (1.12%)
Obama's green energy plans build hopes, skepticism
Obama asked Congress "to act without delay" to pass legislation that included doubling alternative energy production in the next three years and building a new electricity "smart grid."
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Dow .............8,769.70 .........-245.40 (-2.72%)
S&P 500 ......906.65 ............-28.05 (-3.00%)
Nasdaq ........1,599.06 .........-53.32 (-3.23%)
Intel Sales Take a Nosedive
Intel, the world's largest maker of computer chips, said on Jan. 7 that it would report sales of $8.2 billion, down 20% from the third quarter and 23% from a year earlier.
"Revenue will be lower than the company's previous expectation… as a result of further weakness in end demand and inventory reductions by its customers in the global PC supply chain," Intel said in a statement.
US Economy: Companies Cut Payrolls at Faster Pace
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Reports issued two days before the release of U.S. jobless data showed private employers cut payrolls at a faster pace in December, threatening to send the unemployment rate to levels unseen in a quarter century.
“The level of unemployment is going to be higher” and may exceed 10 percent, Martin Feldstein, the former National Bureau of Economic Research president
US companies face $409 billion pension deficit: study
Oil prices tumble below $43 on oil reserve report
Energy prices plunged across the board Wednesday, giving up a week of gains with unexpectedly large U.S. crude reserves suggesting demand for energy has eroded even further.
S&P 500 ......906.65 ............-28.05 (-3.00%)
Nasdaq ........1,599.06 .........-53.32 (-3.23%)
Intel Sales Take a Nosedive
Intel, the world's largest maker of computer chips, said on Jan. 7 that it would report sales of $8.2 billion, down 20% from the third quarter and 23% from a year earlier.
"Revenue will be lower than the company's previous expectation… as a result of further weakness in end demand and inventory reductions by its customers in the global PC supply chain," Intel said in a statement.
US Economy: Companies Cut Payrolls at Faster Pace
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Reports issued two days before the release of U.S. jobless data showed private employers cut payrolls at a faster pace in December, threatening to send the unemployment rate to levels unseen in a quarter century.
“The level of unemployment is going to be higher” and may exceed 10 percent, Martin Feldstein, the former National Bureau of Economic Research president
US companies face $409 billion pension deficit: study
Oil prices tumble below $43 on oil reserve report
Energy prices plunged across the board Wednesday, giving up a week of gains with unexpectedly large U.S. crude reserves suggesting demand for energy has eroded even further.
7 China Stocks to Turn Crisis to Opportunity
January 07, 2009 about stocks: CHL / GSH / HNP / LFC / RIO / TDF / YZC
Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson believes one big winner from the infrastructure boom will be Vale (RIO) the world’s largest producer of iron ore. As the world’s leading producer and consumer of steel, China is also the world’s leading importer of iron ore, which - along with coking coal - is a key component in steel production.
A big source of China’s iron-and-steel demand has to do with the country’s commitment to railroads. A full $100 billion of the stimulus package will be spent on rail services. That makes Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd. (GSH) a good play.
China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (LFC).
China Life is experiencing continued growth for reasons unique to government regulations. Without a social security system, Chinese consumers must fund their own retirement - one reason the Chinese save an amazing 35 cents of every dollar they earn.
Another company worth looking at is China Mobile Ltd. (CHL).
With 443 million subscribers, China Mobile is the dominant provider in the world’s largest mobile telecom market. And in terms of growth, an additional 3 million to 4 million consumers become mobile phone subscribers in China each month, according to the Chinese Ministry of Information.
Soaring Energy Demand = Growing Profit
China’s electricity consumption rose 5.2% in 2008 and investment followed. A total of $84 billion (576 billion yuan) was invested in the sector in 2008 - 1.52% over 2007. Power grid spending rose 17.69% to $42 billion (288.5 billion yuan).
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. (YZC). China burns more “black rock” than the United States, Japan and Europe combined, and this company is one of China’s biggest coal suppliers. It produces lots of high-grade, low-sulfur coal, which burns cleaner and fetches a premium price.
Huaneng Power International Inc. (HNP)
Huaneng is the largest utility in China, and is a virtual lock to benefit from growth in any form. It owns 16 operating power plants, and has controlling interests in 13 others. As a state-owned enterprise, it has the contract to produce the power for the entire eastern region of China, including Shanghai and Beijing. Although it’s been generating losses lately due to high coal prices, the power company is likely to increase output and profits with any economic expansion.
If you’re leery of investing in individual stocks you might want to look at the Templeton Dragon Fund Inc. (TDF). Over 80% of the closed-end’s assets are directly invested in China. And with roughly 50 positions, it provides ample diversification.
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LET'S SEE IF THESE STOCKS REALLY GOOD CHOICES.
January 07, 2009 about stocks: CHL / GSH / HNP / LFC / RIO / TDF / YZC
Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson believes one big winner from the infrastructure boom will be Vale (RIO) the world’s largest producer of iron ore. As the world’s leading producer and consumer of steel, China is also the world’s leading importer of iron ore, which - along with coking coal - is a key component in steel production.
A big source of China’s iron-and-steel demand has to do with the country’s commitment to railroads. A full $100 billion of the stimulus package will be spent on rail services. That makes Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd. (GSH) a good play.
China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (LFC).
China Life is experiencing continued growth for reasons unique to government regulations. Without a social security system, Chinese consumers must fund their own retirement - one reason the Chinese save an amazing 35 cents of every dollar they earn.
Another company worth looking at is China Mobile Ltd. (CHL).
With 443 million subscribers, China Mobile is the dominant provider in the world’s largest mobile telecom market. And in terms of growth, an additional 3 million to 4 million consumers become mobile phone subscribers in China each month, according to the Chinese Ministry of Information.
Soaring Energy Demand = Growing Profit
China’s electricity consumption rose 5.2% in 2008 and investment followed. A total of $84 billion (576 billion yuan) was invested in the sector in 2008 - 1.52% over 2007. Power grid spending rose 17.69% to $42 billion (288.5 billion yuan).
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. (YZC). China burns more “black rock” than the United States, Japan and Europe combined, and this company is one of China’s biggest coal suppliers. It produces lots of high-grade, low-sulfur coal, which burns cleaner and fetches a premium price.
Huaneng Power International Inc. (HNP)
Huaneng is the largest utility in China, and is a virtual lock to benefit from growth in any form. It owns 16 operating power plants, and has controlling interests in 13 others. As a state-owned enterprise, it has the contract to produce the power for the entire eastern region of China, including Shanghai and Beijing. Although it’s been generating losses lately due to high coal prices, the power company is likely to increase output and profits with any economic expansion.
If you’re leery of investing in individual stocks you might want to look at the Templeton Dragon Fund Inc. (TDF). Over 80% of the closed-end’s assets are directly invested in China. And with roughly 50 positions, it provides ample diversification.
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LET'S SEE IF THESE STOCKS REALLY GOOD CHOICES.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dont-get-used-to-cheap-oil-apf-13983793.html
Don't get used to cheap oil, analysts say
Some analysts say oil could eventually eclipse $150 a barrel, maybe even on its way to $200. In such a scenario, gasoline would easily cost more than the record high of $4.11 a gallon set last summer. Oil trades at about $50 today.
No one knows for sure, but some analysts say the spike could happen as soon as next year, perhaps in 2011 or 2012.
"I think those supply limits will come back to bite with a vengeance," said Sean Brodrick, a natural resources analyst at Weiss Research Inc.
"Demand will start growing, supply will start coming down, and you'll have that intersect again where prices will take off dramatically," Vincent said. "(But) it's not healthy for the economy. It's not healthy for the industry."
Don't get used to cheap oil, analysts say
Some analysts say oil could eventually eclipse $150 a barrel, maybe even on its way to $200. In such a scenario, gasoline would easily cost more than the record high of $4.11 a gallon set last summer. Oil trades at about $50 today.
No one knows for sure, but some analysts say the spike could happen as soon as next year, perhaps in 2011 or 2012.
"I think those supply limits will come back to bite with a vengeance," said Sean Brodrick, a natural resources analyst at Weiss Research Inc.
"Demand will start growing, supply will start coming down, and you'll have that intersect again where prices will take off dramatically," Vincent said. "(But) it's not healthy for the economy. It's not healthy for the industry."
Dow ..............9,015.10 ..........+62.21 (0.69%)
S&P 500 .......934.70 ...........+7.25 (0.78%)
Nasdaq .........1,652.38 .........+24.35 (1.50%)
In other economic news, the minutes from the Dec. 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated there was significant contraction in economic activity during the fourth quarter, and downside risk to growth remains. Unemployment is expected to rise significantly into 2010.
Meltdown 101: What shows up in the Fed minutes?
S&P 500 .......934.70 ...........+7.25 (0.78%)
Nasdaq .........1,652.38 .........+24.35 (1.50%)
In other economic news, the minutes from the Dec. 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated there was significant contraction in economic activity during the fourth quarter, and downside risk to growth remains. Unemployment is expected to rise significantly into 2010.
Meltdown 101: What shows up in the Fed minutes?
Monday, January 05, 2009
Dow ................8,952.89 ...........-81.80 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 ........927.45 ..............-4.35 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq ..........1,628.03 ...........-4.18 (-0.26%)
Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09 (Update1)
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide.
The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60.10 a barrel by December. The curve looks almost the same as 10 years ago, ....
Bets on a recovery paid off then as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production 6.9 percent, causing prices to more than double in 1999. Now, OPEC is pledging to reduce supply 9 percent,
“The world economy will get into a more stable environment most probably in the second half of next year,” Christoph Eibl, who helps manage more than $1 billion at Tiberius Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland, said Dec. 31. “Commodities are thus due for a rebound. Crude oil has the best potential.”
“While commodity prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 peaks, I see a further 15 to 20 percent downside risk for commodities into 2009 and maybe a recovery of those prices only toward the end of the year if there are signals of a global economic recovery,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis.
OPEC is “determined to bring stability to the oil market,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Dec. 21 in London, and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said in November that $75 was a fair price. That month his nation cut output by 3.2 percent, the most since April 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
OPEC will reduce daily crude shipments by 1 percent in the four weeks to Jan. 17 as the group enacts the supply cuts it agreed in Algeria last month, according to industry consultant Oil Movements.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to as low as zero for the first time and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama will seek as much as $850 billion in new spending and programs, congressional officials have said. China unveiled a 4 trillion-yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan in November and European Union leaders are drawing up packages worth about a combined 200 billion euros ($278 billion).
“Once these economies kick in again with the money supply pouring into these economies, everybody is going to be caught short with no inventory of these commodities and then commodity prices will move up again,” said Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore, who oversees about $26 billion in emerging-market stocks.
“Low prices in themselves do not normally create demand for commodities but for oil they do,” said Tim Mercer, chief investment manager at Hong Kong-based hedge fund Musahi Capital Ltd. Should the economy recover this year, “$80 to $100 oil is quite possible,” he said.
World Consumption
World oil consumption will increase by 400,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 86.3 million a day this year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Oil demand in 2008 fell for the first time since 1983, the IEA estimated.
“The dollar is going down,” said Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. “If that’s right, gold is definitely going to continue its recent recovery and I think that might give some support to oil prices as well, despite the weak fundamentals.”
S&P 500 ........927.45 ..............-4.35 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq ..........1,628.03 ...........-4.18 (-0.26%)
Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09 (Update1)
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide.
The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60.10 a barrel by December. The curve looks almost the same as 10 years ago, ....
Bets on a recovery paid off then as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production 6.9 percent, causing prices to more than double in 1999. Now, OPEC is pledging to reduce supply 9 percent,
“The world economy will get into a more stable environment most probably in the second half of next year,” Christoph Eibl, who helps manage more than $1 billion at Tiberius Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland, said Dec. 31. “Commodities are thus due for a rebound. Crude oil has the best potential.”
“While commodity prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 peaks, I see a further 15 to 20 percent downside risk for commodities into 2009 and maybe a recovery of those prices only toward the end of the year if there are signals of a global economic recovery,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis.
OPEC is “determined to bring stability to the oil market,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Dec. 21 in London, and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said in November that $75 was a fair price. That month his nation cut output by 3.2 percent, the most since April 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
OPEC will reduce daily crude shipments by 1 percent in the four weeks to Jan. 17 as the group enacts the supply cuts it agreed in Algeria last month, according to industry consultant Oil Movements.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to as low as zero for the first time and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama will seek as much as $850 billion in new spending and programs, congressional officials have said. China unveiled a 4 trillion-yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan in November and European Union leaders are drawing up packages worth about a combined 200 billion euros ($278 billion).
“Once these economies kick in again with the money supply pouring into these economies, everybody is going to be caught short with no inventory of these commodities and then commodity prices will move up again,” said Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore, who oversees about $26 billion in emerging-market stocks.
“Low prices in themselves do not normally create demand for commodities but for oil they do,” said Tim Mercer, chief investment manager at Hong Kong-based hedge fund Musahi Capital Ltd. Should the economy recover this year, “$80 to $100 oil is quite possible,” he said.
World Consumption
World oil consumption will increase by 400,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 86.3 million a day this year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Oil demand in 2008 fell for the first time since 1983, the IEA estimated.
“The dollar is going down,” said Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. “If that’s right, gold is definitely going to continue its recent recovery and I think that might give some support to oil prices as well, despite the weak fundamentals.”
Friday, January 02, 2009
The most scared predictions
Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.
“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.
Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.
The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean,
“The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”
“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.”“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”
“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”
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Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.
“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.
Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.
The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean,
“The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”
“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.”“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”
“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”
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Thursday, January 01, 2009
FDA Drug Approvals Highest In Three Years
Federal regulators approved more new drugs in 2008 thanin any of the prior three years, a slight consolation to anindustry struggling with greater scrutiny, thousands of layoffsand thinning drug pipelines. The Food and DrugAdministration approved 24 new, or first-of-a-kind, drugs in2008, more than the 18 approved in 2006, the 22 approvedin 2006 and the 20 approved in 2005.Such drugs included Pristiq, an antidepressant from Wyeth(WYE); Treanda, a treatment for certain types of leukemiaand lymphoma from Cephalon Inc. (CEPH); as well asAmgen Inc.’s (AMGN) Nplate and GlaxoSmithKline PLC’s(GSK) Promacta to treat a blood condition that involves lowplatelet counts.
Federal regulators approved more new drugs in 2008 thanin any of the prior three years, a slight consolation to anindustry struggling with greater scrutiny, thousands of layoffsand thinning drug pipelines. The Food and DrugAdministration approved 24 new, or first-of-a-kind, drugs in2008, more than the 18 approved in 2006, the 22 approvedin 2006 and the 20 approved in 2005.Such drugs included Pristiq, an antidepressant from Wyeth(WYE); Treanda, a treatment for certain types of leukemiaand lymphoma from Cephalon Inc. (CEPH); as well asAmgen Inc.’s (AMGN) Nplate and GlaxoSmithKline PLC’s(GSK) Promacta to treat a blood condition that involves lowplatelet counts.
2009 Outlooks
Street looks to '09 with relief after terrible '08
By the year's end, many market analysts were predicting that 2009 would be better, but that recovery would be slow as investors, shaken by the devastation to their portfolios, U.S. companies and the overall economy, remain reluctant to buy.
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally
I think we are setting up for a massive rally - much more than the 20% rallies we have had. The quicker a massive rally were to occur, the more likely I would expect it to turn out to be a bear market rally and I would look to add an inverse ETF as a hedge if the rally was very fast. 30% in a couple of months would be a scenario that I would fade. If the market rallied 30% over 12-15 months, I’d be less likely to fade that one - but that is a long time off.
In case it is not clear a massive rally is just that, a bear market rally which I think is more probable than a new bull. In 1935 and 1936 the Dow had a two year 72% rally.
The Fed didn't do anything between 1929 and 1933, and the market managed to pull together 5 sucker rallies 20% or more before finally hitting the bottom.These 5 sucker rallies were:
11/13/1929 - 04/17/1930, 198.69 -> 294.07, 48%
12/29/1930 - 02/24/1931, 160.16 -> 194.36, 21%
06/02/1931 - 07/03/1931, 121.17 -> 155.26, 28%
10/05/1931 - 11/09/1931, 86.48 -> 116.79, 35%
01/05/1932 - 03/08/1932, 71.24 -> 88.78, 25%
1. Only one lasted as long as 5 months. Most were 1 or 2 months long. So they were not "massive" in any sense of being sustained.
2. The fact that they were bear-market, or sucker, rallies is evident from the overall movement from the beginning of the first to the end of the last: 198.69 --> 88.78, which is negative 56%.
8 really, really scary predictions
Jim Rogers
The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen.
Nouriel Roubini
We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it.
Gross: Treasurys Enter Bubble Territory
Bill Gross: Investment Outlook : Dow 5,000 Redux
Dow 5,000? We don’t have to go there if current domestic and global policies are focused on asset price support and eventual recapitalization of lending institutions. But 14,000 is a stretch as well.
'Fast Money' Recap: Gloomy '09 Outlook
Joe Terranova said he hopes 2009 turns out to be a replay of 1988, when the market slowly recovered and ended up 12%. He said he doesn't want a replay of the period between December 1931 and June 1932 when the market dropped another 46% and ended down 32% for 1932.
Lee commented briefly on the VIX, which fell to 39 today. Tatro said it's easy for investors to get complacent and believe the market can't go lower. "That's ridiculous. We could go down another 30% to 35% in 2009," he said.
5 stock experts foresee 2009 rebound
By the year's end, many market analysts were predicting that 2009 would be better, but that recovery would be slow as investors, shaken by the devastation to their portfolios, U.S. companies and the overall economy, remain reluctant to buy.
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally
I think we are setting up for a massive rally - much more than the 20% rallies we have had. The quicker a massive rally were to occur, the more likely I would expect it to turn out to be a bear market rally and I would look to add an inverse ETF as a hedge if the rally was very fast. 30% in a couple of months would be a scenario that I would fade. If the market rallied 30% over 12-15 months, I’d be less likely to fade that one - but that is a long time off.
In case it is not clear a massive rally is just that, a bear market rally which I think is more probable than a new bull. In 1935 and 1936 the Dow had a two year 72% rally.
The Fed didn't do anything between 1929 and 1933, and the market managed to pull together 5 sucker rallies 20% or more before finally hitting the bottom.These 5 sucker rallies were:
11/13/1929 - 04/17/1930, 198.69 -> 294.07, 48%
12/29/1930 - 02/24/1931, 160.16 -> 194.36, 21%
06/02/1931 - 07/03/1931, 121.17 -> 155.26, 28%
10/05/1931 - 11/09/1931, 86.48 -> 116.79, 35%
01/05/1932 - 03/08/1932, 71.24 -> 88.78, 25%
1. Only one lasted as long as 5 months. Most were 1 or 2 months long. So they were not "massive" in any sense of being sustained.
2. The fact that they were bear-market, or sucker, rallies is evident from the overall movement from the beginning of the first to the end of the last: 198.69 --> 88.78, which is negative 56%.
8 really, really scary predictions
Jim Rogers
The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen.
Nouriel Roubini
We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it.
Gross: Treasurys Enter Bubble Territory
Bill Gross: Investment Outlook : Dow 5,000 Redux
Dow 5,000? We don’t have to go there if current domestic and global policies are focused on asset price support and eventual recapitalization of lending institutions. But 14,000 is a stretch as well.
'Fast Money' Recap: Gloomy '09 Outlook
Joe Terranova said he hopes 2009 turns out to be a replay of 1988, when the market slowly recovered and ended up 12%. He said he doesn't want a replay of the period between December 1931 and June 1932 when the market dropped another 46% and ended down 32% for 1932.
Lee commented briefly on the VIX, which fell to 39 today. Tatro said it's easy for investors to get complacent and believe the market can't go lower. "That's ridiculous. We could go down another 30% to 35% in 2009," he said.
5 stock experts foresee 2009 rebound
2009: Potential Surprises and Other Predictions
- Stock markets will plunge to new lows - I develop forecasts to predict fair value of the S&P 500. The fair value estimate serves as a price point at which I am being fairly compensated for assuming market risk. I start 2009 with a fair value target on the S&P 500 of 625. This equates to approximately 6,000 for the Dow and 1,050 for the NASDAQ.
- Unemployment exceeds 10%
- The mass retail culture dies -- As unemployment rises, consumer spending will drop and mass retail outlets will diminish.
- Treasuries are the next bubble to burst - The Fed has indicated they will do whatever is needed to reflate the economy. Eventually the printing presses will run so hard that investors shun the low yields of Treasuries and inflation returns.
- Trending markets allow active traders to outperform - As markets skid to new lows, trading opportunities exist. A second half rebound based on positive growth in 2010 offers potential for gains. Those who position within these trends will do well. Those who buy and hold will not.
2008 Ends and 2009 Begins
Wall Street Ends Dismal 2008 on Up Note
Stocks in New York closed 2008 -- a year of financial turmoil, global crises and high-profile rescues -- with a small win for the day but historic losses for the year.
In its worst year since 1931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 33.8% in 2008, ending the year at 8776.39; the S&P fell 38.5% to 903.25 in 2008; and the Nasdaq lost 40.5%, signing off 2008 at 1577.03.
Stocks in New York closed 2008 -- a year of financial turmoil, global crises and high-profile rescues -- with a small win for the day but historic losses for the year.
In its worst year since 1931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 33.8% in 2008, ending the year at 8776.39; the S&P fell 38.5% to 903.25 in 2008; and the Nasdaq lost 40.5%, signing off 2008 at 1577.03.
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